The bulletin with UBS on “Green hockey sticks”
A discussion on the importance of deploying and scaling climate tech to reach Net Zero
Listen to the podcast:
Green hockey sticks. William Nicolle on how to analyze tipping points in key climate technologies
William Nicolle discusses why it is important for policy makers, corporate leaders and investors to understand where key climate technologies stand in their development and deployment and why capital is key scale them.
Deep, rapid, and viable decarbonization is possible only through climate technologies gradually outcompeting and replacing carbon-intensive incumbents. Successes exist—renewables already do this, and electric vehicles are following suit—but most remain commercially uncompetitive. Those close to commercial maturity offer high climate and commercial bang-for-the-buck.
The world is familiar with the theory of change. As solutions scale, typically their quality improves and costs drop, driving a self-reinforcing process of deployment. Eventually, a new technology improves enough to outcompete an incumbent, initiating a transition from old to new. The climate transition is no different; climate techs that facilitate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, from wind turbines to rudimentary interventions that support nature’s proper functioning, need to scale by becoming ‘better’ than incumbent solutions. The sticking point is that most remain economically uncompetitive today;1 in almost every sector, the pace and scale of climate tech deployment is too modest to limit global heating to well below 2oC. Still, grounds for optimism exist.
Tipping points are approaching for some sectors. For others, they lie beyond 2035.
Several climate techs are near or have passed tipping points where they may become cheaper and better than old tech, such as solar, wind, and batteries. Others may pass tipping points before 2030, including battery-powered electric vehicles and heat pumps. Some may not reach tipping points in the next decade, such as synthetic fuels that look to remain stubbornly expensive in the near-term.
Climate technologies require significant investment, but some offer greater abatement.
Reaching 2035 deployment targets will cost trillions of dollars, mostly driven by mature climate techs. Achieving Net Zero requires these solutions to deploy quickly, raising near-term implementation costs. Despite the cost, climate techs that need to further scale in the short term—wind, solar, batteries, EVs, and more—offer the greatest opportunities for reducing emissions.
Impactful technologies are those close to tipping points with high abatement potential.
Focusing reform, resources, and capital on bringing forward tipping points for almost-mature, high-abatement climate techs is possibly the most efficient way to quickly reduce emissions in the near term. EVs, for example, are a relatively mature technology where price parity with conventional cars is near, and each additional EV generates clear, significant, and reliable GHG savings.
What the practitioners say
What the practitioners say
Climate goals demand the mass-scale rollout of technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, technological barriers, high costs, supply-side bottlenecks, too little demand, and insufficient policy support combine to limit their competitiveness. The result: climate tech deployment remains far too slow to keep global heating well below 2oC.
Hear from entrepreneurs, practitioners, academics and more on why sustained collaboration, innovation, and investment is crucial to tackle climate tech’s funding gap.
