Daily update

  • There is little on the calendar today (former US Treasury Secretary Summers has, of course, been speaking). Assorted business sentiment opinion polls will be clamoring for attention with all the sophisticated appeal of a three year old having a temper tantrum.
  • US security adviser Sullivan criticized China for halting the publication of some economic data. China has reduced the number of economic statistics it publishes by more than 50% since President Xi came to power. The US is not blameless either. Underfunding statistical agencies has contributed to a decline in US data quality—fewer than half the companies asked provide data for non-farm payrolls. With the biggest structural upheaval in 250 years, the inability to understand economies in real time is dangerous.
  • Spain’s king asked the opposition People’s Party to have a go at forming a government—they do not appear to have the necessary support at the moment. This process will drag on for some time, but investors are rarely bothered about the absence of political leadership in developed economies.
  • Most (not all) of the US Republican Party presidential candidates will be debating tonight. Do investors care? They do not. Tonight is about point scoring, posturing, and slapstick politics—not about policy substance.

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