Daily update
Daily update
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell sparked an “everything” rally last week. This prompted the others on the FOMC to dampen the more extreme speculation. New York Fed President Williams (an economist, so deserving of considerable respect) suggested a March cut was not feasible. Markets have retreated in response.
- There are several ECB speakers, including Chief Economist Lane. Speculation about ECB easing has not been so fevered, and it is possible that the ECB will wait for the Fed to ease, and then just follow docilely in their wake.
- The Financial Times is reporting on the increased number of corporate bankruptcies across the developed world. Some of this may be due to aggressive monetary policy. However, there are two other factors to consider. There were a huge number of corporate startups in 2020 and 2021, and as everyone is not an entrepreneur a proportion of those businesses are likely to be failing about now. In addition, structural change revolutionizes the economy, and some businesses are no longer viable as we change how we work and consume.
- The German ifo survey is due. It is hard to get excited about sentiment surveys, but markets may try in the absence of other news.
