Daily update
Daily update
- It is not the best time for the US House of Representatives to be paralyzed. Voting for a speaker is expected today—markets are not, perhaps, expecting an edifying spectacle. Investors’ main concern is whether the government shuts down on 17 November. This might possibly be avoided even without a speaker in place, but not having a speaker adds risk to markets.
- The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. However, recent Fed speakers have offered a suspiciously coordinated set of dovish comments—almost as if trying to talk bond yields lower—and those remarks may take precedence over the minutes.
- German final September consumer prices are unlikely to be revised. US September producer prices are expected to signal disinflation. Recent crude oil price increases have not impacted consumer gasoline prices as much as normal. No US consumer pours crude oil into the tank of their SUV, and a lot happens between crude and the consumer (influencing the price).
- The IMF world economic outlook came packed full of forecasts that were out of date before the document was even printed. Recent data revisions were not taken into account. This is a growing issue as structural change means data is revised more often.
