Daily update
Daily update
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke yesterday. Today, no fewer than five members of the Fed are speaking on the economic outlook, presumably to clarify what Fed Chair Powell “meant to say”. Actually, Powell’s speechwriters did not say much controversial, keeping rate cut expectations alive. Media comment around this has tended to sensationalize—inflation is branded as sticky (it is not), and above target (moot point).
- The ECB delivers the “account” of its last policy meeting. With European inflation unsurprisingly surprising by coming in lower than expected (again), there is an economic case for the ECB reducing rates before the Fed. The question is whether the decision-making capabilities of the ECB are up for that task.
- US February trade data is due. Despite the headlines there is not much evidence of trade patterns being meaningfully disrupted by shocks. The headline numbers hint at what US consumers may be doing with goods demand, but the detail (who is actually selling to the US) is where things get interesting.
- Assorted European business sentiment polls are due today. This emphasizes the fact that if you keep issuing data with astonishing frequency (manufacturing, service, revised manufacturing, revised service, composite), someone might give that data attention it does not deserve.
