Daily update
Daily update
- We get fresh evidence on the hedonism of the US consumer, with personal income and spending numbers. The personal consumer expenditure deflator will be the markets’ focus. This is less influenced by the nonsense of owners’ equivalent rent than is consumer price data. There are other notable differences (like motor insurance). Overall, the inflation data is expected to stay steady.
- Japan’s Tokyo consumer price inflation increased on the headline measures (though using the international definition of “core”, it was the lowest pace of growth for 16 months). Production growth remained negative, but retail sales data was positive.
- The Eurozone will release the flash consumer price estimate for May. This is expected to rise slightly to 2.4% y/y for the headline—the highest out of Europe, the UK, and the US (on a like-for-like basis). Nonetheless, the ECB is expected to be the next central bank to cut rates.
- The criminal conviction of former US President Trump is not likely to impact markets yet. Investors are not yet properly pricing the presidential race. Investors will care if voters care; and while voters tell pollsters that they care, we know from the unreliability of business and consumer sentiment that abstract ideas are not the same as behavior in reality.
