Daily update
Daily update
- The US reminds us that average earnings are not wages, and also publishes some other employment data. Today’s employment report will be a bit messy—US workers do not like cold weather, and the weather was cold. There is also the big set of benchmark revisions to past data, which are likely to reduce estimated payrolls.
- The overall US labor market story is still soft-landing consistent. Middle income families have job security, which gives them the confidence to spend money on life’s essentials (like Taylor Swift concert tickets). Even if payrolls are revised lower, the reality of the 2023 labor market was that people spent money last year. Profit-led inflation has eroded living standards for lower income workers, and that has been reflected in an increase in numbers of multiple job holders.
- The Bank of England offered something for everyone—with hawkish and dovish votes. We hear from Chief Economist Pill today, and as with all Chief Economists their remarks should be heard with reverential attention.
- There is some ECB chatter in Europe, which is unlikely to alter the idea that the ECB will be late to the easing party. French industrial production is due, but changing consumption patterns probably make the Riviera more interesting than the output of Renault.
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