Daily update
Daily update
- The economic calendar is strewn with irrelevancies in the form of business sentiment opinion polls. For-profit polls crave the oxygen of publicity, but neither their profit motives nor the attendant media attention are guarantees that they reflect economic reality. Partisan bias, inaccurate answers to questions, and falling response rates are all challenges to the usefulness of surveys (of any kind).
- Yesterday’s pontification of European Central Bank (ECB) speakers confirmed market expectations that rate cuts are coming (with this month’s policy meeting seen as the next cut). The ECB needs to follow inflation lower, and Euro area inflation keeps coming in lower. This is not a difficult proposition.
- US data includes initial and continuing jobless claims numbers. These are accurate but not comprehensive measures of the US labor market (contrasting with the inaccurate but comprehensive payrolls survey). High levels of job security continue to give confidence to middle-income US consumers, aiding them in their relentless pursuit of hedonism.
- Fed Presidents Kashkari and Bostic are talking about the inclusive economy. While markets give this subject little medium attention, it is arguably all that matters in the long term—economic success in the fourth industrial revolution depends on having the right person, in the right job, at the right time.
