Daily update
Daily update
- The UK British Retail Consortium’s shop price index exhibited more disinflation than had been expected, with prices rising 1.3% y/y. This measure does include the discounting applied to loyalty card holders in the two-tier pricing system (consumer price inflation excludes this), and retailers have been keen to shore up customer loyalty with selective discounts as resentment about profit-led inflation has increased.
- German consumer price inflation is also expected to show disinflation. German inflation is already within a reasonable range around the 2% target. The numbers have come in lower than the consensus expectation for five of the past six months (mathematical models are not necessarily good at forecasting the unwinding of a profit-led pricing episode).
- US February factory orders are expected to show an improvement. Unusually, these figures are quite often revised lower (the tendency is to revise economic data stronger over time). The JOLTS data on job openings are also due. Job openings should continue to decline as people get over their mid-life crises and stay with their employers. However, new recruitment methods may mean job opening levels are structurally higher.
- Europe has assorted manufacturing sentiment opinion polls. Bonds reacted to strength in US manufacturing sentiment, although trusting in sentiment in a politically polarized environment is perhaps unwise.
