Daily update
Daily update
- Germany and Spain offer July inflation data. German data is expected to be stable. That puts it within a reasonable range around the ECB’s 2% target. Spanish data is expected to slow, though somewhat further away from the target level. However, the extent of disinflation recently is truly remarkable—German inflation has fallen over nine percentage points in less than two years, and Spanish inflation has fallen over seven percentage points.
- The UK’s BRC shop price index recorded prices rising at a barely visible 0.2% y/y. Only three economists forecast this number, meaning there is no credible consensus expectation, but this remains benign. Profit-led inflation was in retreat during the second quarter, and disinflation forces continue into the third quarter.
- France, Italy, and Spain offer second quarter GDP data. These countries should all benefit from the pivot from spending on goods to spending on fun—a trend visible last year and continuing this year. The Olympics might moderate French tourism (host countries can experience less travel around an Olympiad, as tourists fear high prices and crowding).
- US Conference Board consumer confidence is due, obviously subject to partisan bias. Vice-President Harris’s election bid may improve Democrat and undermine Republican confidence. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments released yesterday showed exceptional politicization.
