Daily update
Daily update
- The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of structural change means that increasing amounts of economic activity are likely being missed in this sort of data. Overall, there should be some signs of a slowdown, but middle-income consumers will still provide resilience.
- There are two practical considerations with the US GDP numbers. In an election year, it is important to remember that normal people do not care about abstract concepts like GDP. National economic wellbeing is judged (or misjudged) through a biased perspective of personal economic circumstances. There is also uncertainty about the trend rate of growth of the US—the Federal Reserve’s 1.8% guess is probably too low. Immigration and productivity gains from things like flexible working have likely raised the sustainable growth rate.
- South Korea’s first quarter GDP was boosted by strong exports as the artificial intelligence craze continues. Domestic construction was urged into growth by government action.
- Elsewhere, there is little that investors are likely to bother paying attention to. German consumer confidence and Japanese department store sales are unlikely to alter investors’ economic narrative—nor is ECB President Lagarde who will, of course, be speaking.
