Daily update
Daily update
- The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was strongly influenced by labor market churn. As that subsided, vacancy rates fell. Nominal wage growth continues to slow, which argues against a tight labor market.
- US April factory orders data is of moderate interest—the US still has some influence as a manufacturer. The consensus range for this data is quite wide, so comparisons to “market expectations” should be tempered—“the market” does not really know what to expect.
- US President Biden is expected to announce immigration restrictions. Current UK Prime Minister Sunak pledged a cap on future immigration. Opposition to immigration is likely to persist; with increasing structural economic change, scapegoat economics is a growing trend and migrants are a focus. Governments may limit immigration to contain social tensions, but less migration slows trend growth rates and increases fiscal pressures.
- UK BRC shop sales data showed less growth than consensus, but the consensus was just three economists (not really a consensus at all). The numbers are nominal, so affected by rising food prices and falling consumer durable goods prices. Almost 37% of non-food sales in the UK are now online.
