Daily update
Daily update
- Germany and Spain are offering final consumer price inflation data for April today. Although a lot of data is Europe is revised, the initial estimates for consumer prices are rarely altered. The narrative is of Eurozone inflation within a reasonable range of the ECB’s target, and evident disinflation pressures.
- US April producer price inflation is expected to be benign, with a slight slowing in the core rate. The problem is that this tells us less and less about consumer price inflation. Market-based prices at a consumer level are generally in disinflation, and durable goods prices have been falling for months and months. It is the made-up prices calculated by a mysterious statistical alchemy in the depths of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that are propping up consumer price inflation, and producer prices have no influence over those.
- UK April labor market data was little changed from March. Average hourly earnings (not wages) may have been supported by lower paid workers leaving the workforce. The job vacancy number fell again—but this does not record actual job vacancies, and reduced labor market churn will lower this figure.
- The German ZEW survey of professional forecasters and the US NFIB survey of small business sentiment are due.
