Daily update
Daily update
- The US personal consumer expenditure deflator remains in disinflation. Durable goods prices sank ever deeper into deflation. Market-based prices showed disinflation, as did services excluding financial service (financial service prices often follow market valuation). There was an intensely technical clarification about calculating owners’ equivalent rent—price no real person pays or cares about, but which excites economists. The clarification makes it unlikely OER will add more to inflation this year.
- Eurozone consumer prices are also likely to exhibit disinflation. The consensus hovers between 2.5% and 2.6% y/y for headline inflation—above the mythical 2% point target. However, neither economics nor economic data is precise. Anything between 1% and 3% should be considered “on target” in practical terms.
- Final February US Michigan consumer sentiment is due. Republicans have been turning more optimistic, possibly reflecting political trends. Assorted business sentiment polls are due around the world.
- Several central bank speakers are scheduled. This is not that surprising (the fact that ECB President Lagarde is not speaking is unusual). Bank of England Chief Economist Pill should be heard with the respectful reverence all chief economists deserve, but the sheer volume of Federal Reserve speakers stands out. It will be worth seeing if there is a suspiciously coordinated tone to their remarks.
