Daily update
Daily update
- Preliminary consumer price inflation numbers for April are due from Germany and Spain. There are no sizeable base effects or peculiarities in these numbers. The expectation for both counties is an inflation rate similar to March—although the consensus range is moderately wide, and unwinding profit-led inflation is difficult to forecast.
- The US is offering the Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment survey, which is a reminder of the biases in sentiment polls. The political partisanship displayed in the comments section signals one thing that motivates survey respondents. There is selection bias—normal people do not fill in surveys, and if you fill in a survey and add a comment you are likely to be even further from the norm.
- Markets are likely to be in limbo ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. On several measures, US inflation could be considered as already within the target range. With disinflation evident across market-driven prices, it seems clear that Fed policy has done what it was supposed to. The administered and fictional prices that are propping up some inflation metrics are less subject to Fed influence.
- Eurozone consumer and business confidence data are due, but are never an investor focus. ECB Chief Economist Lane is set to speak.
