Daily update
Daily update
- Assorted business sentiment opinion polls are published, in an otherwise quiet data calendar. This, unfortunately, means that the surveys will get more attention than they deserve because talking heads have little else to talk about. Political polarization and biases in news cycles have depressed sentiment, which has tended to underperform economic reality.
- US politicians continue to politick. US President Biden addresses the nation tonight—it is very unlikely that he will say anything markets care about. Vice President Harris appears to have a majority of delegates backing her presidential bid, with discussions today about a virtual vote to nominate her as candidate. Markets only care about this process if Harris signals a significant policy shift (unlikely) or if odds around the presidential election alter.
- US new home sales data is volatile, has been weak, and is sensitive to the relentless repression of the Federal Reserve’s policy. US June wholesale and retail inventory data is generally overlooked (almost no economist forecasts this). However, there are stories of firms building up inventories with fears of more aggressive trade taxes (tariffs are paid by US consumers, not foreign exporters).
- ECB Chief Economist Lane is on a panel (expect worthy rather than exciting comments), and there are a couple of Fed speakers too.
