Daily update
Daily update
- Politics can dominate headlines without creating meaningful consequence for financial markets. Escalating military action in the Middle East is an example. Investors are likely to focus on consequences for oil prices and safe-haven flows, which seem muted for now. The success of the far-right in Austria’s weekend elections may be a larger investor concern. The global trend toward prejudice politics risks disrupting global trade and capital flow in the near term, and undermining the benefits of technological change in the longer term.
- Germany, Italy, Ireland, and Portugal offer September flash consumer price inflation data. The inflation rates should all come in below the magic 2% figure (the European Central Bank’s revered if somewhat random point target)—this follows slower than expected French inflation last week. ECB President Lagarde speaks today.
- The UK revises second-quarter GDP again. Structural change means that the UK tends to underestimate economic activity, and these numbers will be revised further in the future. August consumer credit and mortgage data will be examined, as the Bank of England’s easing cycle starts.
- Japan’s August retail sales data was somewhat stronger than expected (the numbers do not adjust for inflation). The Dallas Fed manufacturing sector opinion poll offers entertainment value with its comments section of partisan political perspectives.
