Daily update

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen receives an honorary doctorate today, which gives ECB President Lagarde an opportunity to speak in public. It would be poor taste to talk of policy on such an occasion. Of more interest is Yellen’s motive for visiting Europe—the G7 finance ministers’ meeting on Thursday. This may discuss using the income from frozen Russian assets (including central bank assets) to aid Ukraine. Markets may pay attention not just to the implications for Ukraine, but the implications around the security of asset ownership in a politically polarized world.
  • Various other central bankers speak. Bank of England Governor Bailey is talking on central bank reserves / balance sheets. This is not an immediate market moving topic, but it does matter to the medium-term policy outlook. Various Federal Reserve speakers clutter up the schedule too.
  • German producer price inflation stayed in deflation. The numbers were weaker “than expected” (the consensus was formed from 10 forecasters, who produced seven different estimates). Consumer goods prices remain subdued at the factory gate. Factory gate food prices are falling.
  • South Korean exports in the first 20 days of May were strong, adjusting for differences in working days. The hype around artificial intelligence benefits Korean technology exports.

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