Daily update
Daily update
- The only scheduled US presidential debate is after US markets have closed today. This is near enough to the election for investors to care. Investors’ focus is whether the debate influences election probabilities, and if the candidates offer new policy insights.
- Election probabilities depend on polling, and markets are less inclined to trust the accuracy of opinion polls these days. The two candidates may not be treated equally on policy. Investors tend not to believe that former US President Trump is serious about aggressively taxing US consumers of foreign goods—extreme policy positions may again be dismissed as rhetoric. Policy details from US Vice President Harris are more likely to be viewed as policy possibilities.
- China’s official August export numbers were better than expected, led by exports to Europe. Euro strength may have contributed a little (Europe pays euros for a lot of its manufactured imports; China’s numbers are reported in US dollars). Official export strength will flatter official GDP growth, bringing the numbers closer to the official GDP target, but weak import growth suggests poor domestic consumption.
- UK labor market date was as expected (with slightly more employment growth). Germany and the Netherlands offer final consumer price inflation data (completely uninteresting) and the US has the NFIB small business sentiment poll.
