Daily update
Daily update
- US December trade figures are due. Trade will be an increasing focus in 2024 as elections encourage economic nationalism. Structural changes are also adjusting trade patterns as the lengthy supply chains of the third industrial revolution appear unnecessarily complex given the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. Geographic details of trade patterns are of interest, therefore. While the focus will be on imports (the US role as consumer of last resort is why it is the world’s most important economy), the US does still export and shifts there should not be overlooked.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen commented on commercial real estate and the financial system. Changing working patterns and consumption habits, along with new environmental standards, have turned some real estate into stranded assets. Yellen was cheerleading the financial sector, inevitably, but this is a long-term adjustment for many economies.
- ECB board member Schnabel was sounding characteristically hawkish, but also worryingly trusting about data quality. A false belief in data precision may delay necessary rate cuts—which economic trends already suggest are necessary.
- German December industrial production data highlighted precision concerns. The data was weaker than expected, but (with weary inevitability) the previous month’s data was revised stronger, as it has been for 10 of the past 12 releases.
