Daily update
Daily update
- China’s official first quarter GDP data reported surprising strength. Unsurprisingly, this surprise will make the official 2024 growth target easier to achieve. March economic data was less supportive, with weakness evident in production and retail sales figures. The industrial data may reflect the ongoing pivot away from goods by global consumers. Amidst the general hedonism of yesterday’s US retail sales data, the trend away from spending on durables and in favor of spending on services was evident.
- US industrial production data is of less global significance than that of China, but it is still important. The localization of supply chains is a trend that will take several years to unfold, and it is futile to look for evidence of that in monthly production figures.
- The UK authorities have warned several times that the quality of UK employment data is not great (they are more public about data flaws than other statistical agencies). However, the trends suggest some slowdown—although earnings growth is slowing less than is inflation, which does imply better consumer spending power.
- German March wholesale prices remain in deflation (they have been falling since last April, so this is no surprise). The German ZEW business sentiment poll is due—sentiment polls tend to understate European economic activity.
