UBS Mid-Year Outlook 2024
The New Momentum
Hong Kong, June 26, 2024
Event Highlights
UBS is excited to host the upcoming UBS Mid-Year Outlook 2024 in Hong Kong, on Wednesday, June 26.
After climbing to unprecedented peaks in 1Q24, major stock markets are now facing a range of challenges - from persistently high US interest rates to geopolitics. We are optimistic that dynamics in the latter half of the year can unlock new momentum for portfolios, if several critical factors converge. First and foremost is the trajectory of the US economy and inflation, which has kept Fed rate cuts at bay. Additionally, while the tech sector remains a source of enthusiasm, artificial intelligence must meet lofty growth expectations. Against this backdrop, geopolitical risks are building with the US presidential election approaching and regional conflicts and trade frictions looming over vital supply chains.
Video gallery
Welcome address
Opening Keynote fireside chat: Navigating global risks in an era of crisis
CIO Mid-Year Outlook
Breakout Session One | Navigating tax challenges: What advantages does Hong Kong offer to UHNW families?
Breakout Session Two | Capturing yield and alpha from the sustainability transition
Positioning of the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence
The power of diversification with Alternative Investments
Closing keynote fireside chat – Mainland China Outlook & Hong Kong’s future positioning within the Greater Bay Area
Be a part of discussion
Amy Lo
Chairman Global Wealth Management Asia, Head and Chief Executive, UBS Hong Kong
Geopolitical risks posed by elections, polarization and conflicts within and between countries have inevitable knock-on effects on the global economy. This year more than ever, managing these global risks in an era of crisis become more essential. How does China play a role in global risk management, and how will current geopolitical tensions affect future international stability? This opening keynote fireside chat will explore these uncertainties and re-examine its potential impact on global markets and businesses.
Speaker
The Honourable Malcolm Turnbull AC
29th Prime Minister of Australia
Moderator
Min Lan Tan
Head Chief Investment Office APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
From escalating geopolitical tensions to a delayed Fed rate cut, market uncertainty is brewing. Volatility has also returned to markets after an unusually smooth rally in equities since late October. Where are the investment opportunities in these times of uncertainty? Explore with our CIOs on what comes next and how investors should position to respond to changing economic and market trends and improve the resilience of their portfolios.
Speakers
Mark Haefele
Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management
Min Lan Tan
Head Chief Investment Office APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
This panel of experts will review the evolving global tax landscape, from the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) to the pending changes in various jurisdictions such as the UK non-domicile tax regime and others. These global policies implementations have brought new challenges on tax planning for individuals and family offices. In this context, the panel will explore Hong Kong's unique tax advantages.
Speakers
Ka Yan Pau
Partner, Deloitte Private / Tax and Business Advisory
John Wong
Partner, China Family Business and Private Client Services Leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Darren Bowdern
Head of Alternative Investments and Head of Asset Management Tax, ASPAC, KPMG China
Moderator
Andrew Lo
Head, Family Advisory & Family Office Solutions, Greater China,
UBS Global Wealth Management
Despite macro headwinds and political debates, sustainable investing continues to grow and perform. In this panel, CIO discusses the short- and long-term gains from taking a portfolio approach to sustainable investing, and highlight key ideas in focus, including sustainable infrastructure for yield and visible impact, as well as ESG engagement for corporate change and potential alpha.
Speakers
Edward Lewis
Managing Director, Macquarie
Hamish Galpin
Director, Head of Small & Mid Cap, Lead Manager of Global Small Cap, Federated Hermes Limited
Moderator
Adrian Zuercher
Head Global Asset Allocation & Co-Head Global Investment Management APAC, UBS Chief Investment Office
Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as a technology with revolutionary potential that is rapidly reshaping our society, economy, and culture. Machines can now learn from experience and perform human-like tasks. How will AI transform in next 5 – 10 years? AI has already created almost two trillion dollars of investor wealth in 2023, how may we capture the significant investment opportunities in years to come? In this session, we will explore the trend and potential of AI characterized by its rapid growth and widespread integration across industries and sectors.
Speaker
Ash Fontana
AI-focused investor, advisor and author
Founding team and partner of AngelList, Zetta Venture Partners (the first AI fund)
Moderator
Eva Lee
Head Greater China Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office
In a market environment where more uncertainty and higher volatility is expected, investors are looking beyond traditional investments for better returns. Alternatives Investments have therefore become an important portfolio diversifier. In this session, industry experts will discuss what investors need to look for to successfully implement an allocation in Private Equity. Join our experts to understand the potential investment focus for you and your portfolios.
Speakers
Ed Huang
Senior Managing Director, Head of Asia-Pacific Private Wealth Solutions Group, Blackstone
Cyrus Driver
Managing Director, Private Equity Technology, Senior Member of Management, Partners Group
Oliver Wiedemeijer
Managing Director, Product Development & Client Relationship Management, EMEA and APAC, Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions
Moderator
Yifan Hu
Regional Chief Investment Officer & Head Macroeconomics APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
Hong Kong's future positioning in the Greater Bay Area is poised for a pivotal role in driving regional integration, innovation, and economic growth. As a global financial hub and a gateway to mainland China, Hong Kong brings its unique strengths in finance, professional services, and international connectivity to the table. How should Hong Kong leverage its expertise in finance, technology, and creative industries, to become a vibrant center in the Greater Bay Area's development?
Speaker
Fred Hu
Founder, Chairman and CEO, Primavera Capital Group
Moderator
Dong Tao
Executive Vice Chair APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
* Agenda is subject to change
Topic
Market Outlook
Geopolitics
AI
ESG
Alternative Investments
Greater Bay Area
Tax planning
Discover our full lineup
In order of appearance
Amy Lo
Chairman Global Wealth Management Asia, Head and Chief Executive, UBS Hong Kong
Amy Lo is Chairman, Global Wealth Management Asia, Co-Head UBS Global Wealth Management Asia Pacific, Head and Chief Executive of UBS Hong Kong, and a Managing Director at UBS. Since joining UBS in 1995, she has held a number of senior management positions including Regional Head of Ultra High Net Worth and Global Family Office in Asia.
With over 30 years of experience in the banking industry, Amy actively involved in the development of Hong Kong’s private banking industry. Amy chairs the Executive Committee of the Hong Kong Private Wealth Management Association (PWMA), and is a Board Member of the Hong Kong Financial Services Development Council (FSDC) and the Hong Kong Academy for Wealth Legacy.
The Honourable Malcolm Turnbull AC
29th Prime Minister of Australia
Australia’s 29th Prime Minister (2015-2018) had international careers in law, business and the media before entering politics at the age of 50.
As Prime Minister, he reformed Australia’s personal income tax, education and childcare systems, oversaw the legalisation of same sex marriage and announced the construction of Snowy Hydro 2.0 the biggest pumped hydro scheme in the southern hemisphere. Mr Turnbull embarked on the largest peacetime investment in Australian defence capabilities and set out Australia’s first national cybersecurity strategy.
Globally, Mr Turnbull played a leading role in reviving the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP-11 or CPTPP) after the United States withdrew. He also struck deals with US Presidents Obama and Trump to accept refugees who tried to arrive in Australia illegally by boat.
As a young lawyer, Mr Turnbull successfully defended former MI5 agent Peter Wright against the British Government in the 1986 “Spycatcher” trial before entering business where he ran his own investment banking firm for a decade before joining Goldman Sachs as a partner in 1997. Both before and after his political career, Mr Turnbull has been a successful venture capitalist. He co founded OzEmail Limited, the first Australian tech company to be listed on the NASDAQ.
Since leaving politics, Mr Turnbull has resumed his business career. He is a senior adviser to KKR and an investor in, and adviser to, many Australian technology businesses. He is President of the International Hydropower Association. Mr Turnbull speaks and writes on a range of issues including cyber security, geopolitics and renewable energy.
Min Lan Tan
Head Chief Investment Office APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
Tan Min Lan is the Head of the Asia Pacific Investment Office at UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office, since July 2013. She serves as a member of the House View Investment Forum and Asia Investment Meeting, which formulate the regional and global UBS House View.
Prior to joining UBS Global Wealth Management, Min Lan spent eleven years with the UBS Investment Bank where she held a number of senior appointments. From 2002-2012, Min Lan was the Head of Research and Strategist at UBS Securities Singapore. Over this period, Min Lan was ranked the number 1 analyst in Singapore by Asiamoney for ten straight years. From 2006, she was concurrently appointed the Head of Equities for Singapore, with oversight of research, sales, trading and execution, prime brokerage and exchange traded derivatives. In 2012, Min Lan was made the Global Head of FICC Macro Strategy Research, where she was in charge of teams covering global asset allocation, global emerging markets, fixed income, FX and credit research.
Before joining UBS, Min Lan worked as a senior economist with the Econometric Modelling unit at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, as well as an economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch covering the Asian equities markets.
Min Lan holds a Bachelor in Accountancy (Hons) from the National University of Singapore and is a CFA charter holder. She sits on the Board of Trustees of the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD).
Mark Haefele
Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management
UBS’s Chief Investment Office (CIO)—which celebrated its tenth anniversary in 2021—is at the core of UBS’s USD 5.4 trillion investment ecosystem, bringing outstanding thought leadership and investable solutions to individuals and families around the world.
Mark leads a team of about 1,200 investment professionals working 24/7 and 365 days a year in 19 locations around the globe. It was named ”Best Private Bank for Chief Investment Office” in the Financial Times-owned Professional Wealth Management/ The Banker Global Private Banking Awards 2023 for the second time since the category was introduced in 2021 and was recognized as “the world’s best private bank for discretionary portfolio management” in the
2023 Euromoney Private Banking Awards.
The team’s passion and focus is to help clients reimagine the power of investing and connections so that they can live the life they choose today, prepare for their lives tomorrow, and improve the lives of others.
Mark joined UBS as Head of Investment, CIO WM in 2011. He was previously the co-founder and co-fund manager at Sonic Capital and served as a Managing Director at Matrix Capital Management.
A former lecturer and acting dean at Harvard University, Mark appears frequently in numerous financial media around the world, including CNBC, Bloomberg and the WSJ. He also posts investment and other views regularly on LinkedIn where he now has over half a million followers.
Ka Yan Pau
Partner, Deloitte Private / Tax and Business Advisory
Ka Yan Pau is a Tax Partner of Deloitte China. She is based in Hong Kong and focuses on providing tax and business advisory services to her clients.
With over 15 years of professional experiences, Ka Yan has wide range of exposures in planning and implementing tax efficient arrangements and handling tax compliance for her clients' personal assets, family assets as well as clients' associated corporations. Her focused services include tax planning and business consulting around IPO, incentive scheme design, investment holding and financing structure, family office, individual tax residency status, trust set-up, etc.
Ka Yan is also a frequent speaker at seminars and webinars hosted by different professional bodies, accounting and tax institutions, business chambers, etc. on topics of latest tax updates.
John Wong
Partner, China Family Business and Private Client Services Leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers
John is the China Family Business and Private Client Services Leader He has more than 30 years of experience specializing in helping high net worth individuals and families primarily based in Asia Pacific with Chinese and other nationalities to devise tailor made tax planning, family wealth and business succession planning to achieve the specific personal and family goals of such clients by using trusts, insurance and other appropriate structures for the implementation of such planning as well as setting up family offices and devising family governance and constitution. He has extensive experience in advising various China and Hong Kong based international financial institutions and trustees and is also a frequent speaker at wealth forums and tax seminars.
Darren Bowdern
Head of Alternative Investments and Head of Asset Management Tax, ASPAC, KPMG China
Darren is a partner in KPMG’s Hong Kong Tax practice. He has more than 20 years’ experience serving institutions in the healthcare, insurance, private equity and financial services sectors in Hong Kong.
Darren has been involved in developing appropriate structures for investing in the Asia Pacific region, conducting tax and financial due diligence reviews in connection with M&A transactions, and advising on cross-border transactions. Many of these projects comprise tax effective regional planning, including the consideration of direct and indirect taxes, capital and stamp duties, withholding taxes, and the effective use of double taxation agreements. He also advises clients in a wide range of industries on establishing direct investment, private equity and other investment funds in Hong Kong.
Andrew Lo
Head, Family Advisory & Family Office Solutions, Greater China,
UBS Global Wealth Management
Andrew has over 20 years of private banking experience and he has advised families and family offices on investing, worked with wealth planners to structure family trusts (including Pre-IPO trust) and assisted clients in managing liquidity events. Prior to private banking, he had worked in engineering at Schneider Electric.
Dr. Lo earned a doctorate in business from The University of Manchester where he developed a qualitative framework and a statistical model on trust in wealth management. He received an MSc (finance) from University of Oxford, BASc (engineering) from University of Toronto and is a CAIA charter holder in alternative investment. He holds an advisory role with University of Oxford advising on regional alumni, scholarship, and development matters.
Edward Lewis
Managing Director, Macquarie
Edward is responsible for origination, investment and asset management in Asia for Macquarie.
Edward joined Macquarie in Melbourne in 2008 and has worked on investment, M&A, financing and capital raising opportunities across Asia Pacific. Edward moved to Singapore in 2015 with a responsibility for principal investments with a focus on renewable and energy transition investments. Edward led the acquisition of Conergy Energy Asia in 2018 which became Blueleaf Energy and has overseen Blueleaf’s growth including leading investment and development transactions. Edward is a director on the board of Blueleaf Energy and has over 8 years’ experience representing Macquarie on portfolio company boards.
Academic qualifications include a Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Arts from the University of Melbourne and a Masters in Finance from INSEAD.
Hamish Galpin
Director, Head of Small & Mid Cap, Lead Manager of Global Small Cap, Federated Hermes Limited
Hamish is the Head of the Small & Mid Cap team, which he has led since its creation in 2007. He joined in 1995 as co-manager of the UK smaller companies strategies and served as lead manager from January 1997 to April 2010. Since the founding of the team, Hamish has gradually assumed a more global perspective, with oversight of the holdings across all of the team's strategies, and he is now lead manager of the Global Small Cap strategy. In December 2017, he launched the SDG Engagement Equity strategy and became lead portfolio manager in the process. He has a background in credit, having started his career in the energy and natural resources division of NatWest Bank, and later moving to Bankers Trust as a credit analyst covering European corporates. He has a BEng (Hons) in Civil Engineering from Nottingham University and is a former director of the Hermes Group (DB) pension scheme. Hamish also sits on the Governance Group that monitors the company’s (DC) pension scheme.
Adrian Zuercher
Head Global Asset Allocation & Co-Head Global Investment Management APAC, UBS Chief Investment Office
Adrian Zuercher is Head Global Asset Allocation and Co-Head Global Investment Management APAC at UBS Chief Investment office. In his Global Asset Allocation role, he is responsible for multi-asset portfolio solutions. He co-chairs the tactical investment forum, the global portfolio construction meeting, and is a member of the global investment committee, which defines the UBS CIO house-view. In his Global IM APAC capacity, he is responsible for investment fund selection, portfolio management, and product development. Adrian oversees regional discretionary and advisory mandates, investment and alternatives funds, sustainable investing, and the wealth planning offering.
Before joining UBS, Adrian was Head of Multi-Asset Emerging Market Strategy and Global Asset Allocation at Credit Suisse Asset Management in Hong Kong and Zurich, where he was responsible for multi-asset class portfolios as well as advising sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors on asset allocation. Prior to that, he was an equity fund manager in charge of Asia at VP Bank Asset Management, and a multi-asset class portfolio manager at F. van Lanschot Bankiers. Adrian holds an MSc in finance and economics from the University of Bern and is a CFA charterholder.
Ash Fontana
AI-focused investor, advisor and author, Founding team and partner of AngelList, Zetta Venture Partners (the first AI fund)
Ash authored the book on creating a competitive advantage with AI, “The AI-First Company”, published by Penguin Random House. He wrote that book after launching Zetta Venture Partners - the first venture capital fund focused on AI back in 2013 - with Mark Gorenberg, where he invested in over 50 AI companies and was the first or largest investor in category-defining companies such as Canva, Kaggle, Tractable, Weaviate and Domino. Before Zetta, Ash launched AngelList’s fundraising platform that now manages over $15B. Prior to AngelList, he co-founded Topguest (acquired), a loyalty software platform that counted United Airlines, Hilton Worldwide, and Virgin America as clients. He started his career in growth investing at Macquarie Capital in New York after studying law at the University of Sydney. He now advises governments, corporations and investment firms on AI.
Eva Lee
Head Greater China Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office
Eva Lee is the Head of Greater China Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office in Hong Kong. She joined UBS in Sept 2011 and led a team covering HK/China property research sector. Eva built up and held up the top 3 positions in Asia Real Estate research in the Institutional Investors poll of 2016/17/18. Eva has covered the HK/China property sector for the last 21 years at UBS, before that, at Macquarie, ING, Credit Suisse and HSBC. Eva is a member of Chartered Financial Analysts, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and Hong Kong Certified Public Accountants.
Ed Huang
Senior Managing Director, Head of Asia-Pacific Private Wealth Solutions Group, Blackstone
Ed Huang is a Senior Managing Director and Head of Asia-Pacific (APAC) for Blackstone’s Private Wealth Solutions Group based in Hong Kong. Private Wealth Solutions’ mission is to bring institutional quality products across a broad spectrum of alternative asset classes to individual investors and their advisors.
Mr. Huang joined Blackstone in 2012, and Private Wealth Solutions in 2024. Prior to his current role, Mr. Huang was COO of Asia Private Equity, Head of BCP Asia Acquisitions, and led Greater China and Korea for Blackstone’s Private Equity Group. Mr. Huang has led or been involved in Blackstone’s investments in Ennovi/Interplex, Geo-Young, SHP Packaging, Global Sources, Pactera, and Simone.
Before joining Blackstone, Mr. Huang was previously a Managing Director for China investments at Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia and worked in investment banking for Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch in New York and Hong Kong.
Mr. Huang received a B.A. from Yale University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. Mr. Huang serves as a director on the boards of Ennovi/Interplex, Geo-Young and SHP Packaging. He is also director on the boards of the China and Hong Kong Venture Capital and Private Equity Associations, and a member of the Yale Asia Development Council.
Cyrus Driver
Managing Director, Private Equity Technology, Senior Member of Management, Partners Group
Cyrus Driver is part of the Private Equity Technology business unit, based in Singapore. He is a member of the Global Investment Committee and the Chairman of the Private Equity Direct Co-Investments, extension secondaries and direct lead growth investments in Technology Investment Committee as well as a member of the Board of Directors of the firm's portfolio companies Guardian Early Learning and Straive. Cyrus has been with Partners Group since 2012, has 23 years of private equity investing experience and has served on the boards of twelve portfolio companies. Prior to joining Partners Group, he worked at J.P. Morgan Partners (Private Equity, South and Southeast Asia) and Helix Investments (India Head, Private Equity). He holds an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad.
Oliver Wiedemeijer
Managing Director, Product Development & Client Relationship Management, EMEA and APAC, Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions
Oliver Wiedemeijer is a Managing Director at Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions. In this role, he is responsible for product development and client relationship management in EMEA and APAC.
Before joining Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions in 2023, Mr. Wiedemeijer spent over 18 years at Credit Suisse, most recently serving as global head of due diligence and product strategy across private and alternative markets. He has held numerous alternative investment and client relationship management roles during his tenure.
Mr. Wiedemeijer holds a Masters of Economics from St. Gallen University (HSG).
Yifan Hu
Regional Chief Investment Officer & Head Macroeconomics APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
Dr. Yifan Hu joins us as Regional Chief Investment Officer & Chief China Economist. She is based in Hong Kong, and serves as a member of the CIO Asia Investment Committee as well as the CIO Emerging Markets Investment Committee. Working alongside the investment teams globally and in Asia Pacific, Yifan is helping shape CIO's macroeconomic and investment views on APAC.
Yifan has held several Chief Economist positions since 2007, most recently at Haitong International where she was tasked with leading H-share equity research. Prior to this role, Yifan worked as a Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, China Economist at France's Natixis, and China Strategist at Merrill Lynch. Her views and columns can be found in leading financial media.
Prior to that, Yifan was an Assistant Professor at the School of Business and Economics at the University of Hong Kong and published extensively in the international and Chinese academic journals. Yifan has considerable experiences in research and consulting, and served in various prestigious organizations including the World Bank and The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington D.C.
Yifan received her Ph.D in Economics from Georgetown University and B.S. in Economics from Zhejiang University.
Fred Hu
Founder, Chairman and CEO, Primavera Capital Group
Fred is Primavera Capital Group’s Founder, Chairman, and CEO. He oversees the firm’s overall strategy, talent development, and culture, and assumes the primary responsibilities in establishing and maintaining the firm’s long-term partnerships with global investors. Fred chairs Primavera’s Investment Committee. He initiated and led investment transactions such as Alibaba Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, Ant Group, Yum China, ByteDance, Xpeng Inc., Kuaishou Technology, SenseTime, and Mead Johnson Greater China.
Prior to forming Primavera, Fred was Partner and Chairman of Greater China at Goldman Sachs and a member of Goldman’s Partnership Committee. He previously served as an economist at the International Monetary Fund. He also served on the Hong Kong Government’s Strategic Development Committee and the Advisory Committee for the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and was an independent director of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited.
Fred is currently the non-executive chairman of Yum China Holdings Inc. and serves on the boards of ICBC and UBS Group AG. In addition, he is a member of the The Nature Conservancy’s global Board of Directors and the co-chair of its Asia Pacific Council, a trustee of the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) and the China Medical Board, a member of the HKEX Mainland China Advisory Group, the Global Advisory Board of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia University, Harvard Kennedy School’s Dean’s Leadership Council and Harvard University’s Global Advisory Council.
Fred holds a Master in Engineering Science from Tsinghua University and a Master and PhD in Economics from Harvard University.
Dong Tao
Executive Vice Chair APAC, UBS Global Wealth Management
Dong Tao is Managing Director and Executive Vice Chair APAC at UBS Global Wealth Management. He was previously Managing Director and the Vice Chairman Greater China for Credit Suisse Wealth Management in Asia Pacific.
Dr. Tao was ranked #1 in First Business News Survey in 2011 and is highly regarded by investors. He has published more than ten books in his career.
Dr. Tao joined Credit Suisse in 1998 as the Chief Regional Economist for non-Japan Asia, with a focus on China. He moved from investment bank to wealth management in July 2016.
Prior to joining Credit Suisse, he was with Schroders Securities Asia as Senior Regional Economist and Head of China research.
Dr. Tao holds a Ph.D. degree and a M.Sc. degree from University of Utah and B.A. from Beijing Foreign Language University. He worked in China, the US and Japan. He has been based in Hong Kong since 1994.
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