UBS Mid-Year Outlook 2024

After scaling all-time highs in the first quarter, major equity markets are being tested by geopolitics and higher-for-longer US rates. We believe fresh momentum can be injected into the second half, but this involves the intersection of several important drivers. The first driver relates to the US economy and inflation trends, which to-date have delayed Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the excitement in the technology sector continues, but AI’s transformative potential will need to deliver on lofty growth expectations. Against that backdrop, geopolitics are returning to the spotlight with an upcoming US presidential election that will have wide-reaching implications for public policy, economics, and markets. Ongoing regional conflicts and trade tensions, too, could also threaten critical supply chains.

So, how will the rest of 2024 play out?

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