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Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025

With 125 years of data, the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 provides the historical evidence and perspective needed to underpin future investment strategy. Discover how the first quarter of the 21st century’s market performance compares with that of the 20th century.

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  • Investing under Trump 2.0: Uncertainty and market volatility could persist as Trump’s policies take shape. But investors can bolster their portfolios by positioning for several enduring trends.
  • CIO House View: the impact of current economic trends on asset allocation based on our assessment of the global economy and financial markets.
  • Exclusive events: Be in the know with our latest thought-leadership events in Asia Pacific.

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Investing under Trump 2.0

CIO Alert | Trade war: Our latest views

Markets have been digesting the impact of one of the biggest changes in US economic policy in a generation. In the near term we think the direction for effective tariff rates could be higher still, but over a three- to six-month horizon, in our base case we do think that the effective tariff rate will start to gradually reduce.

Trump's tariffs: Assessing the impact on individual countries

In assessing the tariff impact on individual countries, it is important to consider the difference between the “headline” tariff rates and the “effective” tariff rates, once we account for exemptions. We also need to consider existing tariff rates, on top of which the 2 April tariffs are generally “stacked”.

Why we're not worried—and you shouldn't be either

It's never easy to go through a market sell-off. We offer three reasons to be confident and calm, even during market drawdowns.