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Well, the current rise in inflation is very unusual. It's not really being driven by labor costs, it's being driven by pricing power and profit margins following a year of simply extraordinary levels of demand for goods. Now what we are seeing is that as demand for goods is slowing down, the inflation rate for those goods is slowing down or even moving into deflation. So we've seen price drops for consumer electronics. We're seeing actually outright deflation for mobile phones for televisions. So I think to expect a moderation of the inflation numbers in the second half of this year is very, very realistic. I think central banks will get inflation under control, partly because it's naturally coming down. There's a certain amount of economic gravity at work here, but it's a slightly tricky situation. There is a large part of the inflation basket central banks cannot control, and that's where prices are going up. The areas where they can control, they have to either encourage disinflation or deflation, not by changing wages, because that's not the problem but by slowing demand in the economy, and that's going to be a delicate balancing act. But I think they will generally get it right. I think the risk of a US recession has increased following the Fed's recent policy errors. It has basically abandoned forward guidance, and it's placing more emphasis on consumer price inflation which adds volatility and uncertainty to financial markets. Well, that does have some feed through into the real economy, but despite those errors, I think the risk is still below 50%, and we will probably avoid a US recession. That's because I think people still have job security. Now pay bargaining power is actually very weak at the moment. But as long as people have got job security, they're willing to save a little bit less in order to spend a little bit more. And that's what avoids a recession while still having the economy moderate in the second half.