UBS Investor Watch: U.S. investors and business owners divided on the presidential candidate best suited to manage the economy; majority of investors looking for portfolio adjustments before elections

New York, NY, September 26, 2024 – As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, wealthy U.S. investors and business owners are divided on which presidential candidate is best for the economy, according to UBS’s latest Investor Watch survey. Some 49% of investors prefer Harris while 51% prefer Trump on this issue. At the same time, 55% of business owners feel Trump is better for the economy compared with 45% favoring Harris. Both groups consider Trump the better candidate to deal with taxes and immigration and Harris the better candidate to deal with healthcare, while opinions were divided on who is best to address social security.

Business owners cited policies for the middle class (48%), the approach to green energy (43%) and tax laws (43%) among the reasons they consider Harris better for the economy, while those favoring Trump mentioned tax laws (53%), relevant business experience (53%) and his approach to immigration (50%) as key reasons. That compares with policies for the middle class (62%), preservation of Federal Reserve independence (51%), green energy and healthcare (47% respectively) among investors signaling their confidence in Harris, while those that favor Trump cited his approach to tax laws (64%), immigration policies (64%) and lower business regulations (59%) among the key reasons.

Optimism among both groups increased from 2020, according to the survey, with 74% of investors saying they are highly optimistic about portfolio returns over the next six months, compared to 57% four years ago. Similarly, optimism for founders’ own business is up, with 74% of business owners saying they’re highlight optimistic about the next twelve months, compared to 68% in 2020.

“The economy is clearly a top concern, both among investors and business owners, and this is why our advisors remain focused on providing clients with advice that addresses potential impacts under both scenarios to help ensure the resiliency of their portfolios,” said Rob Karofsky, President UBS Americas, and Co-President UBS Global Wealth Management. “It’s encouraging to see a general increase in optimism as we navigate the volatile market landscape in an election year.”

Considering investment implications

Both investors and business owners want help navigating the election’s financial impact and agree that expert financial guidance is especially important in an election year, according to the survey. Some 77% of investors said that they’re considering portfolio changes ahead of the election, including adjusting sector allocations (38%), adding portfolio protections or hedges (35%), increasing investments (34%), and increasing cash holdings (34%). In terms of sector preferences, investors considered healthcare, sustainable investing and technology most attractive if Harris is elected. Defense, energy and industrials was considered the most attractive on a Trump win.

“Clients and business owners around the world have their eyes on the U.S. elections and want to know what either outcome means for their investments and how it will affect them going forward,” said Iqbal Khan, President UBS APAC, and Co-President UBS Global Wealth Management. “As the only truly global wealth manager, UBS is uniquely positioned to provide extensive insights and global investment views to help identify investment opportunities and market risks.”

Ninety-two percent of investors agreed that a financial plan will help them better navigate election-rated market volatility, while 92% of business owners considered financial planning as essential to focus on their long-term goals and 91% said that they expect more planning advice from their advisor in times of uncertainty.

About the report

For this edition of UBS Investor Watch, UBS surveyed 500 business owners in the U.S. with at least $1M in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves and 971 investors in the U.S. with at least $1M in investable assets from Aug 13-19, 2024. For the August 2020 results, UBS surveyed 448 business owners and 947 investors, from August 26 – 31, 2020.

About UBS

UBS is a leading and truly global wealth manager and the leading universal bank in Switzerland. It also provides diversified asset management solutions and focused investment banking capabilities. With the acquisition of Credit Suisse, UBS manages 5.5 trillion dollars of invested assets as per second quarter 2023. UBS helps clients achieve their financial goals through personalized advice, solutions and products. Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, the firm is operating in more than 50 markets around the globe. UBS Group shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).