The US election: What does it mean for entrepreneurs around the world?

Get ready for the possible consequences of the neck-and-neck race to the White House

27 Aug 2024

With the US elections just weeks away, our latest Chief Investment Office report, US election 2024: Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs, examines how three key channels of influence may affect entrepreneurs around the world. Sign up for your copy today to understand more about what the result could mean for you:

With US voters going to the polls in November, entrepreneurs around the world should prepare for the possible policy outcomes that could affect them directly.

A closer look at the three key channels of influence

Key US macroeconomic variables

The outsize influence of the US economy on the global stage means countries around the world are sensitive to expectations on US GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates – all of which could be influenced by the outcome of this election cycle.

US trade policy

A US president’s signature can shape the country’s commercial relationships with the rest of the world. The US has exerted great influence on the direction of global trade in the postwar era, though focus on unilateral actions has increased lately.

Global and regional geopolitics

For decades, the US has seen itself as the guardian of the global geopolitical order. How it handles its relations with Europe, Russia, the Middle East, China or Mexico, for example, could be quite different depending on who wins the presidency.

A closer look at the three key channels of influence

Key US macroeconomic variables

US trade policy

Global and regional geopolitics

What the US elections could mean for entrepreneurs around the world

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US elections 2024 and Europe

For European businesses, trade relations will be one of the key issues at stake in the US election. The US is Europe’s most important trade partner, accounting for roughly a fifth of both EU exports and imports. Moreover, the US has become an important supplier of energy and related products following the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

While there is little scope for trade relations to improve from here through a Free Trade Agreement, given both candidates’ protectionist inclinations, trade could be disrupted if Trump’s idea to shield the US economy with a tariff wall were implemented.

Sign up for your copy of US election 2024: Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs to learn more about what the result could mean for entrepreneurs in Europe.

US elections 2024 and the Middle East

The competitive landscape for Middle Eastern energy producers also depends on the outlook for US energy policies and its fossil fuel industry, influenced by the US elections.

A Harris presidency would likely continue to focus on climate change, encouraging and possibly accelerating the country’s transition to renewable energy. Conversely, a Trump victory could reduce regulatory risks, increase US oil production, and boost liquified natural gas exports – intensifying competition with Middle Eastern exporters.

Sign up for your copy of US election 2024: Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs to learn more about what the result could mean for entrepreneurs in the Middle East.

US elections 2024 and Latin America

Geographic proximity, cultural affinity, and deep economic ties all explain why the US has played a major role in modern Latin American history.

A Republican victory may bring higher US growth and inflation, which would represent a tailwind for Latin American economies and businesses even if this comes at the cost of higher interest rates. But various countries will experience the elections quite differently, depending on the nature of their economic ties.

Sign up for your copy of US election 2024: Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs to learn more about what the result could mean for entrepreneurs in Latin America.

US elections 2024 and Asia

One potential election outcome – a Trump red sweep – is the one we see posing the greatest risk of disruption for Asia. Trump 2.0 could have outsize implications for regional growth via higher tariffs and greater uncertainty over rates and the dollar.

Sign up for your copy of US election 2024: Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs to learn more about what the result could mean for entrepreneurs in Asia.

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US ElectionWatch 2024

With US voters going to the polls in November, investors should ready themselves for the possible policy outcomes that will reverberate across the US and around the world.