The US election: What does it mean for entrepreneurs around the world?

For European businesses, trade relations will be one of the key issues at stake in the US election. The US is Europe’s most important trade partner, accounting for roughly a fifth of both EU exports and imports. Moreover, the US has become an important supplier of energy and related products following the outbreak of the war between Rus­sia and Ukraine.

While there is little scope for trade relations to improve from here through a Free Trade Agreement, given both candidates’ protectionist inclinations, trade could be disrupted if Trump’s idea to shield the US economy with a tariff wall were implemented.

The competitive landscape for Middle Eastern energy producers also depends on the outlook for US energy policies and its fossil fuel industry, influenced by the US elections.

A Harris presi­dency would likely continue to focus on climate change, encouraging and possibly acceler­ating the country’s transition to renewable energy. Conversely, a Trump victory could re­duce regulatory risks, increase US oil production, and boost liquified natural gas exports – intensifying competition with Middle Eastern exporters.

Geographic proximity, cultural affinity, and deep economic ties all explain why the US has played a major role in modern Latin American history.

A Republican victory may bring higher US growth and inflation, which would represent a tailwind for Latin American economies and businesses even if this comes at the cost of higher interest rates. But various countries will experience the elections quite differently, depending on the nature of their economic ties.

One potential election outcome – a Trump red sweep – is the one we see posing the great­est risk of disruption for Asia. Trump 2.0 could have outsize implications for regional growth via higher tariffs and greater uncertainty over rates and the dollar.