Daily update
Daily update
- There are several ECB speakers on the agenda today. One speaker, Rehn, has already suggested that two further rate cuts are a reasonable estimate for ECB action this year. This is in line with most economists’ views.
- The data calendar is quiet. The UK’s CBI distributive trades data is a retail sector survey which only three economists can be bothered to forecast (making a “consensus” pretty meaningless). US May new home sales data is more noteworthy, reporting on a sector that is vulnerable to the ever tighter real interest rates of the Federal Reserve.
- The French parliamentary debate saw the three political leaders conforming to stereotype on the major issues—markets are unlikely to be moved by this piece of political theater. The increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64 was a contested point (many OECD economies have a retirement age several years higher than 64).
- The UK leader of the opposition, Starmer, suggested a Labour government would try to reach 2.5% GDP growth. The frequency with which UK data is revised may mean it is years before a true growth rate is uncovered, and efficiency gains from structural change will raise living standards but potentially reduce reported GDP growth.
