Daily update
Daily update
- South Korea’s early April export data improved compared to March, and overall looks like it has reached a trough. This suggests that the global economic slowdown should not be too severe. Obviously the hedonistic orgy of spending on goods in 2021 was never going to last, but consumers have not entirely given up on buying things.
- UK March retail sales were soggy. It rained a lot in March. The UK is not used to this much rain and the British stayed at home with a nice cup of tea. Consumer rebellion against profit-led inflation may be stirring—food sales declined. Motor fuel sales are 8.5% below their pre-pandemic level. This reflects the efficiency gains of 44% of workers working from home, and nearly 26% of retail sales done online.
- Federal Reserve speakers are giving hints that a 0.25% rate hike is expected in May. Fed Chair Powell, clutching an economics 101 textbook, will doubtless be happy that the maniacal “hike, hike, hike” chant continues. However, there are also signs that this will be the peak of rates.
- The data calendar has some business sentiment polls taking up space. There are pricing sub-indexes, but for corporates the first rule of profit-led inflation is you do not talk about profit-led inflation.
