Daily update
Daily update
- China’s November trade data showed stronger exports and weaker imports—an outcome which will help the government to meet this year’s official growth target (always something of an overriding concern in China). The data is difficult to interpret with shifts around friend-shoring and localization. Export growth to the EU remain weak, but exports to the US rose compared to last year. In contrast, US data shows import growth from China falling every month to October.
- German October industrial production was marginally weaker than expected. Of course the previous month’s data was revised a little stronger. The pattern does not really add any new information. Italian industrial production is due later.
- In the UK, a government minister no international investor will ever have heard of has resigned from this week’s government. This may prompt speculation about an earlier general election. Investors think they know the outcome of that election already, but the timing may have a bearing on when the Bank of England eases interest rates.
- The US is offering initial jobless claims figures as a prelude to tomorrow’s employment data. In the meantime, markets are speculating wildly on US rate cuts, but there are no scheduled central bank comments to guide bond traders’ fever dreams.
