Daily update
Daily update
- China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, although the detail hinted at some export strength. It seems rather early for the story of foreigners buying goods in anticipation of tariffs—buy now to avoid taxes later—to apply.
- Japanese consumers were also spending surprisingly well, with the second positive quarter of consumption in third-quarter GDP data. Export data remains negative, and industrial production data also remains anaemic.
- Yet more industrial production data—the UK’s October figures were weak, led by poorer manufacturing figures. Consumption and investment supported third-quarter UK GDP (exports were a drag). Weakness is projected for US industrial production data. If buyers are nervous about forthcoming trade taxes, they do not seem to be rushing to stock up on US goods in anticipation.
- The US consumer is back on display with retail sales data. Spending should reflect economic reality (which is of a notable improvement in living standards), not economic perception (which is somewhat soured). Import and export price data are due too. These are not massively important right now, but will become significant as trade taxes are imposed (taxes are levied on US consumers after the import price data).
