Daily update
Daily update
- The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over the budget. A likely scenario would be Barnier continuing as a caretaker prime minister, and the 2024 budget being rolled over.
- The euro weakened a little. As a current account surplus bloc, the euro’s value is determined by Eurozone investors’ willingness to invest overseas (the US dollar’s value is determined by foreign investors’ willingness to buy). Domestic investors understand political risk better than foreigners, so the euro should react but not overreact to politics. France is not Greece circa 2008; it is a wealthy country that can fund its deficit. France is not the US circa 2024; over the medium term, political structures make budget control easier.
- US JOLTS data, recording externally advertised job vacancies, is due. The survey response rate is so low the numbers would not be published elsewhere. Recent variations in vacancies represented shifts between internal and external advertised positions. Vacancies may be in focus if US President-elect Trump pursues deportations that create labor market bottlenecks.
- British Retail Consortium data suggests that the late timing of the Black Friday sales festival and bad weather weakened in-person UK retail sales in November.
