Daily update
Daily update
- The US offers the “final” revisions to second-quarter GDP alongside annual data revisions. Declining real-time date reliability means that revisions matter to economists. US growth data is generally underestimated quite a bit, in the early releases. This problem may increase in the future—for instance, budget cuts mean that labor market data is likely to become less reliable.
- The increased frequency and size of data revisions underscores the dangers of “data dependency” in driving policy. Politically, data revisions do not matter. Economists think about abstract concepts like GDP on a daily basis—ordinary people do not, and instead think about the economy through the warped perception of their own personal experience. Other US data today include the jobless claims numbers, which markets may care about.
- Minutes from the last Bank of Japan policy meeting had some drama (by the standard of central bank meetings). The idea of interest rates chasing inflation higher was expressed, of course. However, concerns that long-term inflation expectations may turn down were also expressed.
- The European Central Bank publishes its monthly bulletin—of slight market interest. Money-supply data is also due, and should be consistent with the idea that central bank policy is stabilizing rather than stimulatory.
