Daily update
Daily update
- The US employment report last Friday was weak, but distorted. It does not add much useful information on the US economy, although it serves as a reminder that real time economic data is not reliable and is frequently revised. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s strategy of data dependency depends on undependable data.
- China’s standing committee of the National People’s Congress meets. This is a suitable moment to unveil the long-awaited fiscal stimulus measures. Monetary stimulus has been offered, but the constraint on China’s consumers is not the cost of credit (it seems to be fear of the future). The international spillover of fiscal stimulus is likely to be quite limited. Economic nationalism and a greater focus on services means that China’s consumers have a slowing propensity to spend on imports.
- There are some European business sentiment polls—these depend on the oxygen of publicity to be commercially viable. More frequent publication means more media attention, but does not necessarily mean greater more reliability.
- US September factory orders and revised durable goods orders are due. These are not likely to sway expectations about the economic outlook, and have little political significance (politically perceptions matter much more than reality, and a third of US voters have already cast their votes).
