Daily update
Daily update
- It is US employment report Friday. This report is distorted by hurricanes, strike action, and the fact that the data is always wrong. Taking a broad sweep of economic data, the signs are that the labor market is doing fine. The ongoing strength of US consumer spending suggests little fear of unemployment, for instance.
- Does today’s data matter politically? The answer to the fabled question “are you better off than you were four years ago?” is yes, measured by real income per person, but it is difficult to sell that to US voters, according to opinion polls. Politically, perceptions matter more than reality, and perceptions are shaped by anecdotal evidence from friends and family, and whichever news channel one watches.
- South Korea’s October export data disappointed, with weaker export growth than had been anticipated. Chip sales are still driving export growth, but with less vigor than has been the case hitherto.
- Several manufacturing sentiment polls due, including the US ISM. While these surveys are often reported as if they were real, they are not. The UK’s manufacturing PMI poll recently had a long period of dire weakness, which coincided with rising manufacturing output. The US ISM has signaled a significant contraction since November 2022, with the reality (basically) of unchanged output.
