Daily update
Daily update
- Markets reacted positively to US President-elect Trump nominating the financier Bessent as treasury secretary. Investors prefer orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence from economic policy; there were fears that some of the candidates may not possess those attributes. Bessent does. Bessent has said he regards taxing US consumers via trade tariffs as a bargaining tool—essentially the stance in Trump’s first term. Others in the cabinet disagree, but investors will be pleased there is one voice of trade tax moderation.
- Last Friday the US Michigan consumer sentiment data soared to the highest level in almost four years—if you were Republican. Democrat sentiment collapsed. This is, obviously, nothing to do with the questions asked about the economic situation. Today’s Dallas Fed manufacturing survey offers insights into political distortions to data via its comments section. The German ifo business sentiment poll is also due.
- The US “Black Friday” festival approaches—and indeed has already begun as retailers extend the promotion period. The shift from spending on goods to having fun has been in evidence all year—does the fevered pursuit of Black Friday bargains constitute fun? In Japan, Tokyo department store sales dropped in October.
- There are four more ECB speakers today. There were over thirty ECB speaking events last week. Sometimes, less is more.
