Daily update
Daily update
- Former US President Trump’s selection of Senator Vance as his running mate is not immediately market moving but it is market relevant. In a television interview, Vance identified China as the US’s greatest threat. Markets have been inclined to think that Trump would not really tax US consumers who buy goods partially made overseas as aggressively as they threaten—but the rhetoric suggests tariff threats may be serious.
- June US retail sales data are released. Price changes matter, as this is a value measure (durable goods are in the most aggressively deflationary episode in over two decades). Disinflation, deflation, a cyber-attack on auto dealers, strains for lower-income households, and the shift to spending on services suggest a lower number. US consumers’ relentless hedonism suggests something not too low.
- The German ZEW sentiment survey is due, but is not a major market focus. The ECB’s bank lending survey is more important, given the role of bank finance to European corporations.
- French President Macron is expected to start proceedings to establish a caretaker government. Meanwhile, the far-left has broken off negotiations with other parties in the Nouveau Front Populaire. This all points to fiscal inertia—no radical fiscal plans, but no attempt to get France onto a sustainable fiscal path.
