Daily update
Daily update
- The market calendar is mainly noise. Quite a lot of that noise has come from Federal Reserve members. Investors can pick whichever view they want, to confirm whatever preconceived policy views they hold. Recent remarks offer a choice of three rate cuts, vigilance against inflation, or too soon to cut rates. The range of views matters less than in the past, given the Powell Fed’s weird unanimity of decision-making.
- The UK’s March BRC retail sales survey was “stronger than expected”. The consensus was built from three forecasts. With no disrespect to the three economists who have sufficient spare time to forecast BRC retail sales, “stronger than expected” is a meaningless characterization. Easter distorts the data, but price discounting may be enticing consumers previously angry about profit-led inflation.
- The ECB bank lending survey is due. A central bank-run survey of the banking system is more likely to produce objective answers than a private sector sentiment poll, and bank lending matters to European corporate finance.
- The US NFIB small business sentiment poll is run by an organization that lobbies politically. In an increasingly polarized US society, political bias is an increasing risk for survey-based evidence. The level of sentiment is typical for a Democrat White House.
