Daily update
Daily update
- China’s May data dump showed weaker-than-expected industrial production, despite earlier reports of stronger exports. Domestic retail sales were stronger, slightly distorted by the timing of holidays. Restaurant sales were stronger, as people seem inclined to spend on having fun.
- The EU leaders gather for dinner in Brussels tonight, and what could be more fun than that? They are expected to confirm one of the EU Presidents—von der Leyen—in a second term (the EU Parliament also needs to agree). Continuity in the EU commission is being stressed, but national politics is offering more uncertainty.
- The French election campaign formally gets underway. Over the weekend, there was a quick purge of candidates in one of the left-wing parties. This matters, because a unified left might reduce the chances of President Macron’s party getting candidates through to the second round of voting. Markets are focused on the fiscal consequences of all of this.
- There is another parade of ECB speakers today, including Chief Economist Lane and President Lagarde. There is discussion about whether a rate cut is coming in September, and as Lagarde has deliberately added unnecessary uncertainty into the policy debate, these remarks may matter. There are a couple of Fed speakers scheduled too.
