Daily update
Daily update
- In the Middle East, Hamas accepted a Qatari/Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire, but the Israeli government has rejected it. There are obvious humanitarian consequences from this, but little direct market impact. Over the longer term, there may be some wider political considerations as this is a polarizing issue in the US (and Republican and Democratic party conventions loom in July and August).
- US March consumer credit will be released, in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s survey of bank lending standards. That survey suggested consumers were being offered easier terms for credit cards, but demand was limited. Rising real incomes (especially for middle income households) may limit the necessity of applying for credit.
- The UK BRC like-for-like store sales data showed declining retail activity in April. This is a value number, and will have been affected by price discounts (ongoing resistance to profit-led inflation), the early timing of Easter, switching to spending on having fun, and uncharacteristically wet weather.
- German March manufacturing orders data are due. These numbers are almost always revised, and recently they have been revised up about two thirds of the time. Most economies are tending to underestimate economic activity these days, and Germany is prone to positive data revisions.
