Daily update
Daily update
- UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK energy pricing (despite large-scale renewable energy generation, gas prices determine what consumers pay). Bank of England Governor Bailey yesterday put some emphasis on service sector inflation, while advocating a gradual reduction of rates.
- The Eurozone publishes third quarter negotiated wage data. Will markets stop trading in tense anticipation of this release? They will not. Will economists be giving it some attention? Maybe. Wage growth has become an important part of the medium-term growth and inflation narrative.
- Japan’s October trade data showed stronger export numbers, led by trade with Asia (excluding China) and the chipmaking machinery and medical goods sectors. Thus, the data is not necessarily a signal of consumers choosing to spend more on goods.
- US President-elect Trump cast the investor Lutnick in the role of commerce secretary, where (if confirmed) he will oversee the consumer tax increases represented by tariffs. This obviously means that Lutnick is not in the race to be treasury secretary, and the issue of who does get to sign dollar bills is still uncertain. Questions like Fed independence and trade tariffs make this appointment important to markets.
