Daily update
Daily update
- The US employment report last week was wrong, because the data always is. However, the general direction of US employment signals an economy very far from “recession”. However, voters do not think about abstract concepts like GDP, have a distorted view of price levels, and believe that pay increases are due to them working harder. While the reality is people have a higher standard of living for the same amount of work, the perception is people are working harder to stand still.
- US consumer credit data tend to be volatile, and the consensus is not a reliable guide to the numbers. With the rise in online retail, people are using credit cards more, but are also more likely to repay their balance each month. Delinquency rates remain relatively low, reflecting the rise in real incomes.
- Aside from rather outdated European retail sales data, and pontification of ECB speakers, Europe is offering German factory orders data. These numbers are always revised, and the upside / downside revisions have been fairly evenly balanced this year.
- Economic nationalism continues to make itself felt in the global economy. Last week France joined Germany in imposing more border controls (affecting goods and people), and media reports suggest China is limiting travel abroad.
