Daily update
Daily update
- US first quarter GDP is revised, and will keep being revised; we will not have a clear picture of current GDP performance for five years or more. Markets will pay some attention to prices from the personal consumer expenditure deflator, but May data is due tomorrow. Politicians use GDP as a weapon or a rallying cry, but GDP is so far from real world living standards that voters do not care whether growth is reported as 1.4% or 1.3%.
- US President Biden and former President Trump debate tonight. This might accelerate investors’ focus on politics (which normally starts around September). Both sides have focused on the other candidate’s fitness for office, so markets probably care more about presentation than policy pledges. Investors tend to regard Biden’s policies as representing some continuity, and to dismiss Trump’s policies as campaign rhetoric that would not actually be implemented.
- Sweden has a rate decision from the Riksbank. The expectation is for unchanged rates, with second half cuts signalled. The Riksbank was early in following inflation lower, and that general strategy is expected to continue.
- Japan’s May retail sales were theoretically stronger than the consensus forecast, but there were relatively few forecasts with a wide range. Price increases pushed up the value of some sales.
