Daily update
Daily update
- South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly suggest consumer spending is behind the improving trade data. Chip demand has been focused on investment spending lately, and shipping construction has too long a lead time to be a short-term indicator of global demand.
- UK public sector finances are due—over the past four years tax revenues have tended to surprise positively. Economic data, which powers fiscal forecasts, tends to miss things (for instance, recent reports that the employment participation rate is higher by around 1 million workers). The tax authorities are less likely to miss things.
- The US Philly Fed business sentiment poll is due. Consumer sentiment polls have been clearly subject to political distortions—and the same people who fill in consumer sentiment polls will fill in business sentiment polls. Business sentiment data, in the US and elsewhere, have tended to understate economic activity.
- You cannot move today without tripping over an ECB official rushing toward the media spotlight. There are thirteen ECB speeches. Do we need this much information? No. Do markets care? Probably not. The Bank of England’s Mann is scheduled to be hawkish, and there are four Fed speakers as well.
