Daily update
Daily update
- UK June retail sales were soggy, coming in below consensus (although not that many economists bother to forecast these numbers, so “consensus” is not necessarily that reliable). The weather was bad in June—there was also a rather unexpected general election campaign, but politics is not really a reason to stop shopping.
- Japanese June consumer price inflation also disappointed, coming in stable on the headline number against hope for an acceleration. Japanese economic data has not been exactly “bad” of late, but there has been a steady stream of modest disappointments which might disrupt the narrative of inevitable and repeated rate increases.
- German June producer price inflation stayed firmly in deflation, as expected. This is not normally a number investors care about, but it lends support to the idea of further ECB rate cuts.
- Former US President Trump talked at some considerable length in accepting the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election. There was little in the speech to really excite investors—for the most part, it reiterated campaign themes. The pledge to raise taxes on US consumers of goods partially made overseas was reiterated, with some focus on the auto sector. Investors may have to revise the idea that this threatened tax will not actually materialize.
