Daily update
Daily update
- The rise of economic nationalism has encouraged a rise in accusations of export “dumping” (selling at a loss in foreign markets)—and China has been specifically accused of this. China’s official industrial profit growth data, if accurate, argues against general export dumping. Profits growth accelerated in July, and with domestic demand lackluster some of this must be due to exports. Accelerating profit growth is not compatible with dumping.
- The UK BRC shop price index moved back into deflation in August, with non-food prices moving further into deflation territory. Of course, goods are a small part of the overall consumer price calculation, but they carry disproportionate weight in forming consumers’ inflation perceptions.
- German final second quarter GDP is not expected to be revised, and will remain negative. It is worth remembering that economies with negative population growth are more likely to have negative GDP, and that this does not necessarily mean a decline in living standards.
- The US Conference Board consumer confidence poll is obviously subject to partisan political bias. Republicans are generally unwilling to report positive sentiment with a Democrat president. Democrats may be more positive, given recent shifts in opinion polls around the presidential election. Neither of these trends has any bearing on consumers’ actions.
