Daily update
Daily update
- In the absence of interesting data, markets focus on less important things, like politics. France has a political debate between current Prime Minister Attal, Rassemblement National president Bardella, and Nouveau Front Populaire leader Bompard. Presumably they will promise voters everything that they desire, without explaining how it will be paid for. Some plans are estimated to cost two Trusses (4% of GDP of unfunded commitments). The reality of government is likely to moderate such plans.
- San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly demonstrated the King Canute problem, urging technology companies to become less competitive and force workers back to offices. Structural change revolutionizes working practices, and the reaction is often the dangerous idea of restorative nostalgia (believing everything will be OK if only we just return to a mythical past). Recognizing change and adapting to it is more productive.
- US data is meager and survey based. Only six economists forecast the Richmond Fed manufacturing sentiment survey, and now is not the time to start giving the figures any attention. The Conference Board consumer sentiment poll will be distorted by political polarization.
- Japanese service sector producer price inflation slowed. This is not a first-tier data release, but Japanese price data has tended to be lower than expected in the second quarter.
