Daily update
Daily update
- The shooting at former US President Trump’s election rally during the weekend has provoked only a limited market reaction. Markets are concerned about policy probabilities, and while individuals may condemn acts of violence against political candidates, they will not necessarily change their policy projections. There is a popular perception that acts of violence against a candidate increase their support, but this is not necessarily true. Analysis is complicated by US polarization, and shorter news cycles from social media. This adds to uncertainty without necessarily changing policy probabilities.
- China released economic data overnight which was generally weak in tone. Second quarter GDP showed less growth than expected, and the June retail sales data signals ongoing weakness in domestic demand.
- The international implications of China’s data focus on the likely policy response to support domestic growth. The policy mix may have a bearing on China’s demand for commodities, for instance. The data also highlights the importance of exports to China’s overall economic activity, and this is an area that remains very politically sensitive internationally.
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell is giving an interview today, but in the wake of last week’s Congressional testimony markets are unlikely to be too interested. The NY Empire State manufacturing sentiment poll can likewise be overlooked.
