Daily update
Daily update
- China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahead of threatened taxes from US President-elect Trump. Such stockpiling may delay the consumer price inflation effects of the taxes (though the narrative of the tax increase is powerful, and may lead to consumer price increases regardless).
- Another reason for stronger Chinese exports may be the relatively healthy position of the US consumer. The US December employment report showed low unemployment and job creation, which keeps fear of the future low (and spending high). The New York Fed survey of inflation expectations is due today, but this sort of data is subject to partisan bias (Republicans think inflation risks are collapsing, Democrats think they are soaring).
- A gap between perception and reality may be affecting the UK at the moment. Since early December, real world economic data has tended to come in better than expected. However, the government upset businesses by increasing their taxes, and this has created a more negative narrative that media has not tended to fact check.
- ECB Chief Economist Lane reiterated that the direction of Eurozone interest rates is down. Lane expressed confidence that wage growth would slow implying slower inflation in 2025.
